Baseball!

[flyingfox2002]

Through all their losing, I still thought they would be able to win the NL East, but today's disgraceful showing proved me wrong. Tom Glavine... I despised the signing when it happened, and he goes out with a "bang." Imagine if he retires now, he will be remembered for this final start for a while.

To top the disaster off, I couldn't even get a win out of Willis for my fantasy team in a 7-1 game. I have Glavine too but I was safe in ERA and WHIP. Needed a win though, but couldn't get it.

Entered the final day down by 1 pt after a fantastic September from my hitters put me on the brink of victory with a good day today, but both my pitching and offense choked. I got a win out of Moyer but all the other breaks went the 1st place team's way today. Luck has been bad all year and culminated today.

What a terrible baseball day for me.

Ah well, after this I am not not going to care who wins the WS. If the Yankz get knocked out again I'll be happy but until then, I ain't watching.

[Moinllieon]

On a related note, those statistician really know their baseball:

AL East PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
New York Yankees 93-69
Boston Red Sox 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 78-84
Baltimore Orioles 75-87

AL Central PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Minnesota Twins 91-71
Cleveland Indians 90-72
Detroit Tigers 85-77
Chicago White Sox 73-89
Kansas City Royals 66-96

AL West PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Los Angeles Angels 86-76
Oakland Athletics 80-82
Texas Rangers 80-82
Seattle Mariners 73-89

NL East PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Philadelphia Phillies 87-75
New York Mets 86-76
Atlanta Braves 82-80
Florida Marlins 79-83
Washington Nationals 66-96

NL Central PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Chicago Cubs 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals 81-81
Houston Astros 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates 76-86
Cincinnati Reds 71-91

NL West PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
San Diego Padres 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers 80-82
Colorado Rockies 79-83
San Francisco Giants 79-83

Not bad huh?

As for the Mets collapse, any good team could go through a 5-12 stretch. The Mets were unlucky in that the Phils started getting hot (14-4) during the same stretch. This is as much about the Phils getting ridiculously hot as the Mets going cold. Almost a mirror image of what happened in the NL Ｃentral last year.

[Han Solo]

The Mets collapse are pretty sad to watch and read.

and the yanks, we'll see if anything happen. They are not the team of destiny, and they have as much holes as a lday wearing fishnet stockings but hopefully, we can get a ring for Moose, ARod, Giambi - those guys that signed on years ago and stayed for a ws ring.

Han Solo

[SkyKing]

it's October....where is Mr. October aka Jeter?? he seems to disappear ever since A-Rod arrive to the Yankee.....

[flyingfox2002]

On a related note, those statistician really know their baseball:

AL East PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
New York Yankees 93-69
Boston Red Sox 92-70
Toronto Blue Jays 80-82
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 78-84
Baltimore Orioles 75-87

AL Central PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Minnesota Twins 91-71
Cleveland Indians 90-72
Detroit Tigers 85-77
Chicago White Sox 73-89
Kansas City Royals 66-96

AL West PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Los Angeles Angels 86-76
Oakland Athletics 80-82
Texas Rangers 80-82
Seattle Mariners 73-89

NL East PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Philadelphia Phillies 87-75
New York Mets 86-76
Atlanta Braves 82-80
Florida Marlins 79-83
Washington Nationals 66-96

NL Central PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Chicago Cubs 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals 81-81
Houston Astros 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates 76-86
Cincinnati Reds 71-91

NL West PECOTA (3/27/07)
-----------------------------------------
Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
San Diego Padres 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers 80-82
Colorado Rockies 79-83
San Francisco Giants 79-83

Not bad huh?

It was ok. Not anything more impressive than an educated guess would get you. Actual standings are below.


Boston Red Sox 96 66
New York Yankees 94 68
Toronto Blue Jays 83 79
Baltimore Orioles 69 93
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 66 96

Cleveland Indians 96 66
Detroit Tigers 88 74
Minnesota Twins 79 83
Chicago White Sox 72 90
Kansas City Royals 69 93

Los Angeles Angels 94 68
Seattle Mariners 88 74
Oakland Athletics 76 86
Texas Rangers 75 87


Philadelphia Phillies 89 73
New York Mets 88 74
Atlanta Braves 84 78
Washington Nationals 73 89
Florida Marlins 71 91

Chicago Cubs 85 77
Milwaukee Brewers 83 79
St. Louis Cardinals 78 84
Houston Astros 73 89
Cincinnati Reds 72 90
Pittsburgh Pirates 68 94

Arizona Diamondbacks 90 72
Colorado Rockies 89 73
San Diego Padres 89 73
Los Angeles Dodgers 82 80
San Francisco Giants 71 91


The Mets won no more than 15 games in any of the final 4 months of the season. They were .500 or worse in 3 of the last four. This was not a case of a good team going into a short term funk. It was rather a case of them playing over their heads in the first two months because of unrealistically good pitching, which made the final descend into overall mediocrity look worse than it was.

[Moinllieon]

The Mets won no more than 15 games in any of the final 4 months of the season. They were .500 or worse in 3 of the last four. This was not a case of a good team going into a short term funk. It was rather a case of them playing over their heads in the first two months because of unrealistically good pitching, which made the final descend into overall mediocrity look worse than it was.

Regression to the mean is a harsh mistress I suppose. I didn't follow the Mets' form that much for most of the year since they seemed to have everything all wrapped up, but 5-12 is just one of those stretches that teams go through. Like I said, a very similar team won the World Series last year.

As for the stats guys prediction, I suppose it's not "more impressive" than an educated guess. But both you and I made educated guesses and we were both quite off, and we just limited ourselves to division winners. They only missed 1 division winner (and I suspect that maybe because they thought Liriano might make it back this year) and is one close call at homeplate away from getting both Wild Card right too. Not too shabby. I wonder how well other so called "experts" did, especially those stupid stupid (STUPID) ESPN guys.

[flyingfox2002]

Regression to the mean is a harsh mistress I suppose. I didn't follow the Mets' form that much for most of the year since they seemed to have everything all wrapped up, but 5-12 is just one of those stretches that teams go through. Like I said, a very similar team won the World Series last year.

As for the stats guys prediction, I suppose it's not "more impressive" than an educated guess. But both you and I made educated guesses and we were both quite off, and we just limited ourselves to division winners. They only missed 1 division winner (and I suspect that maybe because they thought Liriano might make it back this year) and is one close call at homeplate away from getting both Wild Card right too. Not too shabby. I wonder how well other so called "experts" did, especially those stupid stupid (STUPID) ESPN guys.

In regards to PECOTA's prediction, I would expect theirs to be better than my haphazard predictions which I basically just did on a whim without spending even one second to look over each team's rosters or last year's stats. I suppose PECOTA's prediction, or projection I should say, is based on statistical analysis of the teams and players' recent performances to project their performance in 2007. If I had the time or interest to sit down and pour over each team, each player, I think I would be able to make better predictions than I did. I am not saying I am an expect by any means, just saying as a longtime baseball fan making an educated guess.

The biggest reason for their collapse was the pitching fell back to earth as the innings and age caught up to them. It's not surprising, given the fact that they had no pitcher who you could say was at the prime of their careers. They had some REALLY old guys in the starting rotation, and some still up and coming guys who weren't the most consistent sort. Plus, the inability of the starters to go deep all year long worn down the pen. Plus, Wagner, whom I never wanted on the team in the first place, is a notorious choker in Sept. and Oct. because his arm wears down. They had large leads in many of the games they lost in September. Their pitchers simply couldn't get anyone out.

Still, it's better to be a Met fan today than a Padre fan. They blew 3 straight games to miss the playoffs. Hoffman is not reliable in a big spot. He relies purely on guile and impatient hitters getting themselves out. Against top hitters, he is just not good enough to get it done consistently. The greatest RP right now, Mariano, has a dominant pitch. Even when he gets beat, he's usually beaten by bloops and 18 hop grounders, except on rare occasions when he leaves his pitches over the plate, but Hoffman gets ripped when he's not perfect.
-------

THR playoffs update:

Yankz get ripped by Tribe even though Sabathia sucked. Some Yank fans apparently feel that Wang has been getting a raw deal in not being considered among the elite SPs in baseball, even though he clearly isn't. Today proved there is a baseball god.

Rocks destroyed Phils twice on the road. Dbacks look like they'll be two up. Very interesting who will make the WS. Imagine if the Rockies made it. LOL Actually it would be nice to have them in the Big Show. I like Tulowitzki and I like Holliday.

D-backs actually got outscored by 20 runs this season, good for 78 expected wins according to the RS-RA Pythagorean formula, but still won 90. But I think that's mostly due to them having really useless pitchers at the back end of their pitching staff who would turn big deficits into blowouts. Their "real" pitchers are solid, so I think they have a legitimate shot too. So much for the Cubs pitching I guess. Best pitching staff going in, but they are getting shut down by Doug Davis as I type.

[Moinllieon]

Match the stat line with the quote:

Player 1: .267/.353/.467, 0GIDP
Player 2: .176/.176/.176, 3GIDP

Player A: "It's on me. Whatever blame you put on me, that's fine. The most courageous group of guys, that I've ever played with ... No explanations. No excuses."

Player B: "Sometimes you do well and you lose, and you don't do well and you win. It doesn't really make a difference. We didn't get the job done and that's the only thing that really matters."

Now take a wild guess which one is vilified as a "selfish choker" and which one is the embodiment of everything good and great about the "Yankee Mystique"?

New York doesn't deserve to have A-Rod. The NY Times actually published an article that criticizes A-Rod for showing up for batting practice before his teammates! I'm not kidding! Flyingfox, if you are wondering why I am arrogant enough to think I know more than baseball "experts" who watches the sport everyday, this is why.

[flyingfox2002]

Beat writers write stuff to sell newspapers first and foremost, I wouldn't call them unbiased "experts." Wasn't referring to them when you and I had the argument regarding whether Howard is better or Hafner is better. I don't read print newspapers anyway, I couldn't tell ya what this writer thinks of player A and what that one thinks of player B.

I did hear Suzynn Waltman crying on the Yankee postgame, which was pretty funny.

I haven't watched any postseason games cuz been mad busy with school, but I at least feel a sense of peace that the Yankz got taken out again.

Again, I am neither a fan of Cheater or Payrod. You'll have to convince a Yankz fan Payrod > Cheater. I don't give a hoot.

As far as treatment of Payrod goes, that's just the way the NY Media will scrutinize someone with his talents, looks, and contract. Plus, Cheater was here first and won 4 championships before Payrod, Moose, Giambino, Abreu and company ever set foot in the locker room. Whether it's fair or not, Cheater will always be given the benefit of the doubt.

Hey, I hope he goes to another town and wins 3 championships. That'll make Yankee fans sick to their stomach and make'em hate him even more. But then, I don't care enough either way.

[Moinllieon]

Hey, I hope he goes to another town and wins 3 championships. That'll make Yankee fans sick to their stomach and make'em hate him even more. But then, I don't care enough either way.

He could end up with the Mets. I know you'd take him in a heart beat. Though where would you play him? At short and moving Reyes back to second where he didn't have a good time? Yes, I think about such things. And yes, I would pull for the Mets in that case just to stick it to the Yanks.

[flyingfox2002]

No I wouldn't want him on the Mets. I would want him on my fantasy team for sure, but not my real team. For one, there's no place to play him. Secondly, he's just too much of a distraction. Thirdly, I am not interested in paying any single player 30M a year. Last but not least, the Mets have more pressing needs. Offense is not their problem. They have enough offense to win the WS. They need to revamp the starting rotation. No more 40 year olds at the front end, or anywhere in the rotation hopefully. They really should just let Humber and Pelfrey get a real chance and take their lumps if need be, but they need to see what they have. If Maine and Perez never got a chance, the Mets would have two less MLB caliber starters now.

[Moinllieon]

No I wouldn't want him on the Mets. I would want him on my fantasy team for sure, but not my real team. For one, there's no place to play him. Secondly, he's just too much of a distraction. Thirdly, I am not interested in paying any single player 30M a year. Last but not least, the Mets have more pressing needs. Offense is not their problem. They have enough offense to win the WS. They need to revamp the starting rotation. No more 40 year olds at the front end, or anywhere in the rotation hopefully. They really should just let Humber and Pelfrey get a real chance and take their lumps if need be, but they need to see what they have. If Maine and Perez never got a chance, the Mets would have two less MLB caliber starters now.

I don't see alot of reasons not go have ARod rather than "we have more pressing needs". I agree, but you can address more than one need every off-season. Letting Humber and Pelfrey get their lump in has very little to do with "signing ARod". I suppose he could be a distraction, but if a New York team can't deal with distraction, well... ya know the rest.

[flyingfox2002]

Like I said, if all it takes to win a WS is piling up tons of stats like fantasy baseball, then I would take Payrod in a second, but that's not real baseball, shown by the fact that Payrod has won nothing despite being the best player in baseball in many of the years that he has played. You can make all the excuses for him you want, it doesn't change the fact that he has never won a championship. I am not saying that it's his fault entirely, but you need a team effort to win in baseball, commiting 30M to one player is not a good first step. Besides, for the reasons I mentioned, Payrod is not a good fit with the Mets at all. He would've been a good fit back in 2000, but that's the past.

[Moinllieon]

Well stop pretending like you are a middle market team and face up to the fact that you are the 3rd richest team in all of baseball and can afford to sink 30M for a player would be a good first step. If the Rangers could afford 25M, the Mets could do 30M. Plain and simple. Granted the Rangers didn't compete with ARod there, but they aren't exactly setting the world on fire without him either are they? And besides, that new cable channel money has to be used one way or another.

Top 10 salaries for the Mets this year:

1. Carlos Delgado $14,500,000
2. Pedro Martinez $14,002,234
3. Carlos Beltran $13,571,429
4. Shawn Green $11,833,333
5. Billy Wagner $10,500,000

You guys sunk 40M for Delgado/Pedro/Green. Now, if I remember correctly, Green will be gone after this year (please correct me if I'm wrong about any of this since I'm not up to speed here). Pedro is going to be around for another 2 years. How long is Delgado going to stay? Glavine (7.5M) and Lo Duca (6.6M) could and should be gone too. So "sinking" 30M into ARod could only constitute a 10M or so increase in payroll. What about Luis Castillo (5.75M)?

Of course, that is assuming ARod would come to the Mets. For, as you said, it's the pitching that's the problem.

I am not saying that it's his fault entirely, but you need a team effort to win in baseball

Baseball is a team sport and that's why it's ARod's fault that the teams he has been on has always had inferior pitching. I believe you when you say you don't read the print papers in NYC, mostly b/c their sports section is junk, but it appears the general mood that they create as affected you. Now I know this might be a stretch, but maybe, just maybe, it's the teams that have let ARod down instead of the other way around? I mean, just tossing it out there. I know it's silly considering ARod insist on pitching every game and playing every position all by himself.

So I agree that the Mets have more pressing needs and getting ARod won't solve their problems and might not take them any closer to a championship. If I was Omar Minaya ARod would not be my list of things to do either. But if he wants to come to the Mets, I'd take him in a heart beat.

[flyingfox2002]

Right, so if I, a Met fan, do not want him on my team for the reasons that I have already listed, I am buying into the so called NY media "junk."

I already acknowledge that Payrod is not the main problem why the Yankz have failed to win a championship, I have never said that he was. At the same time, Payrod has proven that he by himself cannot bring a championship to a team. This goes back to the point that teams win championships, not individual players. So, again, the Met team, as it's currently constituted, is better off fixing the pitching rotation, and not messing around with their two of their strongest positions, at SS and 3B , or adding a longterm 30M per year contract just for the sake of adding a so-called superstar.

Omah deserves to be fired if he even gives any serious thoughts to adding Payrod.

[Moinllieon]

Right, so if I, a Met fan, do not want him on my team for the reasons that I have already listed, I am buying into the so called NY media "junk."

I already acknowledge that Payrod is not the main problem why the Yankz have failed to win a championship, I have never said that he was. At the same time, Payrod has proven that he by himself cannot bring a championship to a team. This goes back to the point that teams win championships, not individual players.

Well, all I am asking is this. Who has proven that he can bring a championship all by himself? David Eckstein? Why is that the standard used on ARod? If you realize that teams win championships, not individuals, you should realize such statements are erroneous.

I'd be shocked if ARod does go to the Mets, I just think it'd be funny if he does. But some of the reasons you use against the signing seems wacky. But hey, at least you didn't bring up "clutchiness".

So, again, the Met team, as it's currently constituted, is better off fixing the pitching rotation, and not messing around with their two of their strongest positions, at SS and 3B , or adding a longterm 30M per year contract just for the sake of adding a so-called superstar.

Well, adding ARod doesn't exactly decrease their strongest position. In fact, it adds another, be it LF or 2B while only adding about 10M or so to a payroll of 120M+. Like I said, I agree, rotation and middle relief should be the #1 priority of the Mets this off season, but that doesn't mean you can't pick up some offensive improvements on the side, even if it is just indulgence.

[flyingfox2002]

No single player can bring a championship to a team, that's the point. Thus no team should waste 30M on any player that they have no need for no matter how many extra win shares the formulas say he brings. The focus should be on building on strongest team, not having the players who put up the best numbers regardless of position.

I get the feeling that you think that real life baseball teams would be better served if they just locked themselves in a room with copies of Baseball Prospectus or Bill James' latest book, don't even pay attention to the actual human players, and just select the players with the best statistics, whoever they happen to be. If only running a real baseball team was that easy.
--------

PS, don't diss Eckstein. At least he's got 2 rings and 1 WS MVP award, which is 2 more rings and 2 more trips to the Big Show than what Payrod's got. And no, I don't think Eckstein is somehow a winner and Payrod is a loser (even though Payrod has done next to nothing in the Post Season since joining the Yankz, and frankly, that's all people remember. No one cares what he did in SEA. The Yankz are 1-4 in postseason series since his arrival). It just shows you that you can win the WS with even a guy who barely has ML talent playing Shortstop. Adding Payrod has made no positive difference to the Rangers or Yankz. Again, I am not blaming him, never have blamed him. On the other hand, neither is it entirely the other 24 guys' fault like you're trying to make it seem like.

Boras would love someone who share your views in charge of some team:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...atest-matador/

[Moinllieon]

I get the feeling that you think that real life baseball teams would be better served if they just locked themselves in a room with copies of Baseball Prospectus or Bill James' latest book, don't even pay attention to the actual human players, and just select the players with the best statistics, whoever they happen to be. If only running a real baseball team was that easy.

Hah, yes, after all, Baseball Prospectus can only be read if the reader is locked in a room and ignore baseball right? Nevermind 1) baseball statisticians have shown over and over again that they know what they are talking about and 2) they have never advocated for ignoring the "actual" human, as if that idea even makes sense. And what's wrong with picking the teams with the best statistics? You know which two teams had the best "statistics" in the AL? The Red Sox and Indians, don't look now, but they appear to be still playing while teams with worse statistics aren't. And you know which team had the best statistic in the NL? The Rockies, even after their offensive numbers are adjusted for their ball park. Crazy ain't it?

The thing is, you seem to be operating on the assumption that statisticians and people who listen to them (me) never bother to look at the numbers and try to figure out why they are what they are. This could not be further from the truth. We (meaning people who think in terms of EQA, VORP, WARP, etc.) believe that one should use "advanced statistics" to help scouting and vice versa to create a better evaluation process for players. Nobody is stupid enough to advocate "ignoring real players, whatever that means.

For example, speaking about the '06 Reyes. It was observed that both his OBP and HR rate went up dramatically over his 05 season. Some assumed that it was because he got more patient. But a good scout might look at the number of pitches he sees per at bat (a stat) and see that he wasn't seeing anymore pitches, meaning that he did not get more patient, merely better at recognizing pitches. See how that works? That's the point in having and listening to better statistics. Nothing else. And anytime you resort to that whole "locked up in a room" and "ignoring the human players" rhetoric, you are sinking to the levels of Morgan and McCarver. This is like the people snorting back that Copernicus has spent too long "locked up in his room" that he forgot to step out and watch the sun revolve around the Earth.

And when have I ever shown a lack of appreciation for what happens on the field? Did I not say that IF ARod was joining the Mets, you'd move Reyes to 2B or ARod to the outfield. Suddenly, one of the weakest position (2B/LF) for the Mets become one of their strongest. Yes, of course, that's something someone would say if he was locked in a room and have no appreciation for "real players". What the hell does that even mean? We've been talking baseball for a good part of 5 years and you still haven't gotten past making that argument everytime we seriously disagree about some aspect of baseball even when I have shown many times over that I know what I'm talking about.

PS, don't diss Eckstein. At least he's got 2 rings and 1 WS MVP award, which is 2 more rings and 2 more trips to the Big Show than what Payrod's got. And no, I don't think Eckstein is somehow a winner and Payrod is a loser (even though Payrod has done next to nothing in the Post Season since joining the Yankz, and frankly, that's all people remember. No one cares what he did in SEA. The Yankz are 1-4 in postseason series since his arrival). It just shows you that you can win the WS with even a guy who barely has ML talent playing Shortstop. Adding Payrod has made no positive difference to the Rangers or Yankz. Again, I am not blaming him, never have blamed him. On the other hand, neither is it entirely the other 24 guys' fault like you're trying to make it seem like.

Boras would love someone who share your views in charge of some team:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...atest-matador/

Of course, having ARod on the '02 Angels and the '06 Cards would have doomed those teams right?

Put it another way, if you are so against spending $30M on ARod, then would you spend that to bring in Santana? Keep in mind that Barry Zito cost $18M. And remember that ARod is much more valuable than Santana. And if you aren't going to splash good money, 20M-to-30M or so on some players, who would you rather go for if not Santana/ARod? Sign 3 Jeff Suppans for 10M? Are the Mets operating on a $110M and no more budget that I'm not aware of?

Look, my position isn't exactly ARod is worth 30m/per. And you are right, it won't address the Mets most pressing need. In fact, spending $10M to sign 3 Jess Suppans might actually be more beneficial, who knows, I haven't thought that much about it. My original point was no more than just wanting to see ARod succeed in NYC to rub it in the face of all those NY writers and Yank fans. No more. I understand that as a Met fan whose season just went down the drain you might not be in the mood to indulge me. Fine, but no need to take pot shots at my knowledge of baseball.

[flyingfox2002]

Payrod is not a good fit for the Mets. That's the point. End of argument.

Like I've said before, I am not against statistics as an analysis aide when making judgments on baseball (I play fantasy baseball as you know, I look at stats like EQA when drafting players too. But again, that's for fantasy baseball), but the real life team has to be the foremost focus. E.g. Payrod is not a good fit for the Mets despite his elite level stats. You say add him no matter what because adding his glorious stats is what's most important. I disagree. To add someone who isn't even needed and end up trading away good young players or moving them around to different position is just not sound baseball management.

Of course one Payrod for 30M is better than 3 Suppan, but not signing Payrod for 30M doesn't mean you spend it on Suppan. If you have a competent GM, you will be able to build a better team with spending 30M on multiple players who address the team's weakest needs than on one single player for 30M. Of course, like I said, if we were in the offseason of 2000 now, Payrod would be a great fit, but this is a totally different situation.

Yes, I agree in a vaccuum Payrod > Santanna, but for a team consituted like the Mets, gimme Santanna.

[Moinllieon]

Payrod is not a good fit for the Mets. That's the point. End of argument.

Like I've said before, I am not against statistics as an analysis aide when making judgments on baseball (I play fantasy baseball as you know, I look at stats like EQA when drafting players too. But again, that's for fantasy baseball), but the real life team has to be the foremost focus. E.g. Payrod is not a good fit for the Mets despite his elite level stats. You say add him no matter what because adding his glorious stats is what's most important. I disagree. To add someone who isn't even needed and end up trading away good young players or moving them around to different position is just not sound baseball management.

Of course one Payrod for 30M is better than 3 Suppan, but not signing Payrod for 30M doesn't mean you spend it on Suppan. If you have a competent GM, you will be able to build a better team with spending 30M on multiple players who address the team's weakest needs than on one single player for 30M. Of course, like I said, if we were in the offseason of 2000 now, Payrod would be a great fit, but this is a totally different situation.

Yes, I agree in a vaccuum Payrod > Santanna, but for a team consituted like the Mets, gimme Santanna.

And you've basically come around to my position. There are still several things I'd like to nitpick about as to what exactly you define as sound "baseball management" and somehow Mets spending 30M on ARod means you can't spend 25M on Santana. Or how moving either Reyes to 2nd or ARod to LF is a huge blow to their effectiveness. Or how exactly having ARod would "hurt" the Mets even though it doesn't address their most pressing need in any way. But like I said, it was more or less something to have fun with the idea in my head. Don't feel like indulging me, no problem. No need to take shots at my knowledge.