Baseball!

[flyingfox2002]

The baseball thread got wiped out...

So, we are almost midway into the season, and Roger and Dodger still has a 1.50ish ERA. Yankz still treading water and gitting beat by the Ray Rays. Derrek Lee is doing his best imitation of Ted Williams and Kenny Rogers is pitching like he wants to win the Cy Young even though statistically he seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Will the clock strike midnight or will the Cinderella stories have no reality check?

[Lady Zhuge]

Quite a few posts were wiped out, but the old baseball thread is still here.

Use all 25 votes and vote Derrek Lee for the 2005 All-Star game!!! There's no doubt that he'll make the NL team, but probably not as the starting first baseman. Pujols is having yet another solid season, but isn't putting up the monstrous numbers that Lee's been putting up so far this year. Lee's numbers will probably help him more in next year's voting.

This has probably been discussed here before, but what do you guys think about fans voting? Frankly, I'm against it since it's pretty much a popularity contest and half the people who vote don't even know what's going on. I mean, Garciaparra was leading in the starting shortstop voting at one point and he's done close to nada this season. I can't even believe that he's still in the top 3 in votes! It wouldn't have mattered as much before when the All-Star game was really just a show for the fans, but now the outcome actually plays a factor in post-season play in terms of home field advantage. Here are the voting results thus far.

[flyingfox2002]

I know better than to count the yankz out, but they really don't look like WS contenders this year.

As I am writing this, Mets are leading 4-3 in the 8th. It is not gonna be easy to close them out though.

At least you know Lee is probably clean, otherwise one might think he's juiced this year.
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Edit, Looper just blew the save and the game. It just felt like one of those games where the Yankz were gonna come back. Oh well.

I am more annoyed my fantasy team stinks this year. My lineup managing has been worse than Randolph's. I sat Weeks vs. Santana yesterday, he had 2 hits and a dinger. I finally sit Burrell today after sticking with him through all his recent 0 for 4's and of course he gets 2 hits, a dinger, and 3 RBI. The guy Hawpe I grabbed off waivers for a start vs. Lima at Coors goes 0 for 4. Gomes of TB had a big time hot streak until I grabbed him for two starts, he promptly went 0 for 8.

Ditto with Beltran. Been starting him and getting 0fers nearly every game. In the 3 games I did sit him during his slump he has 2 HR and 6 RBI, which makes me start him the next game, at which time he of course does nothing again until the next time I get fed up and bench him.

Every move backfires this year, it's incredible. There's always next year I guess, like the Cubbies always say.

If there's a player you hate or a team you wanna jinx, let me know, and I'll grab him for a game or two. It works like a charm. He/the team will go into a slump immediately. Guaranteed.

[Moinllieon]

I know better than to count the yankz out, but they really don't look like WS contenders this year.

As I am writing this, Mets are leading 4-3 in the 8th. It is not gonna be easy to close them out though.

With the way the White Sox and the Twins are playing, the Yanks might have to win the East to get in the playoffs and that's looking tougher by the day with the way they are performing....

[Lady Zhuge]

If there's a player you hate or a team you wanna jinx, let me know, and I'll grab him for a game or two. It works like a charm. He/the team will go into a slump immediately. Guaranteed.

Just to test out your claim, let's try Mark Buehrle (who's pitching tomorrow against the Tigers) and/or the White Sox.

[Moinllieon]

If there's a player you hate or a team you wanna jinx, let me know, and I'll grab him for a game or two. It works like a charm. He/the team will go into a slump immediately. Guaranteed.

But if the person you are jinxing happens to be playing against the Mets, which jinx takes precedence over the other? This needs to be investigated.

[flyingfox2002]

Just to test out your claim, let's try Mark Buehrle (who's pitching tomorrow against the Tigers) and/or the White Sox.

While I would love to grab Buerhle, he is not available in any sized league, not just in mine.

If you want me to test this out, you have to name a marginal player who is on a hot streak. Once I pick him up, he will go cold until I release him. My league is 16 team deep, so the player would have to be quite marginal.

Latest proof? Dustin Mohr. I grabbed him to start one game at Coors vs. a lefty rookie HOU SP. Guess how Mohr did. Yup, 0 for 5 even though the Rockies had 5 runs and 11 hits in the game. Sure Mohr stinks, but he had been swinging a pretty hot bat lately, and at Coors and against a rookie lefty, it was a good matchup on paper. His teammates did have a good offensive game, after all.

And another example, checking the game log, here's what Beltran has done the last 3 games I sat him (the only 3 games that I have sat him):

1 for 5, HR, 3 RBI
2 for 5, 2 RBI
1 for 4, HR, RBI

It may not sound like much, but if you take a look at the rest of his game log for June, you would see these are the rare games that he has done anything in. I have been faithful to Beltran all throughout his terrible slump, still starting him in every game, except for those 3. I am on the fence whether to start him tonight or not, as I set my lineup now...

There are countless other recent examples I can bring up, but it will do nothing but bore all of us.

The bad luck really messes with my head. Now I think I better not touch my lineup and just let it be. Of course, the way my luck has been, that may not be a good idea either... Hehehe it is really funny. That's why ya shouldn't gamble, not for real money anyway.

My team BA has dropped from the high .280's to .270 in 2 weeks.

[Moinllieon]

While I would love to grab Buerhle, he is not available in any sized league, not just in mine.

If you want me to test this out, you have to name a marginal player who is on a hot streak. Once I pick him up, he will go cold until I release him. My league is 16 team deep, so the player would have to be quite marginal.

Latest proof? Dustin Mohr. I grabbed him to start one game at Coors vs. a lefty rookie HOU SP. Guess how Mohr did. Yup, 0 for 5 even though the Rockies had 5 runs and 11 hits in the game. Sure Mohr stinks, but he had been swinging a pretty hot bat lately, and at Coors and against a rookie lefty, it was a good matchup on paper. His teammates did have a good offensive game, after all.

And another example, checking the game log, here's what Beltran has done the last 3 games I sat him (the only 3 games that I have sat him):

1 for 5, HR, 3 RBI
2 for 5, 2 RBI
1 for 4, HR, RBI

It may not sound like much, but if you take a look at the rest of his game log for June, you would see these are the rare games that he has done anything in. I have been faithful to Beltran all throughout his terrible slump, still starting him in every game, except for those 3. I am on the fence whether to start him tonight or not, as I set my lineup now...

There are countless other recent examples I can bring up, but it will do nothing but bore all of us.

The bad luck really messes with my head. Now I think I better not touch my lineup and just let it be. Of course, the way my luck has been, that may not be a good idea either... Hehehe it is really funny. That's why ya shouldn't gamble, not for real money anyway.

My team BA has dropped from the high .280's to .270 in 2 weeks.

It's more laws of averages than "bad luck" per se. A marginal player is MARGINAL for a reason. If a lifetime .260 hitter suddenly starts hitting .400 for 2 weeks, then the law of averages says he'll be much more likely to hit .100 than .300 for the next 2 weeks. The law of large numbers is a beast my friend, be wary of the traps it lays down for ya.

[Lady Zhuge]

While I would love to grab Buerhle, he is not available in any sized league, not just in mine.

If you want me to test this out, you have to name a marginal player who is on a hot streak. Once I pick him up, he will go cold until I release him. My league is 16 team deep, so the player would have to be quite marginal.

Hmm...I didn't know there'd be limitations on this cursing deal. Streaky teams and players are usually not good ones anyway.

Anyhoo...I doubt that even the worst curse can stop the White Sox now...

[flyingfox2002]

It's more laws of averages than "bad luck" per se. A marginal player is MARGINAL for a reason. If a lifetime .260 hitter suddenly starts hitting .400 for 2 weeks, then the law of averages says he'll be much more likely to hit .100 than .300 for the next 2 weeks. The law of large numbers is a beast my friend, be wary of the traps it lays down for ya.

Over the long term, the law of averages would hold true for the most part, but when talking about 1 game, other variables such as starting pitcher faced, ballpark, how the hitter is hitting recently is far more likely to presage in-game performance the law of average.

It's easy to see that a recently 3 for 22 Dustin Mohr facing Clemens in HOU is more likely to perform poorly than a recently 6 for 17 Dustin Mohr facing Wandy Rodriguez at Coors (or whatever the heck that HOU kid's last name is, I am too lazy to look him up).

In any event, for the same 0 for 4 phenomenon to occur for 6 or 7 straight games with different players with favorite matchups (i.e. facing mediocre to poor pitchers, hitting well lately) is definitely unlucky.

All I can say is that I hope the law of averages hold up for me next year cuz I am due for some good fortunes like I had in 2003.

[Moinllieon]

Over the long term, the law of averages would hold true for the most part, but when talking about 1 game, other variables such as starting pitcher faced, ballpark, how the hitter is hitting recently is far more likely to presage in-game performance the law of average.

It's easy to see that a recently 3 for 22 Dustin Mohr facing Clemens in HOU is more likely to perform poorly than a recently 6 for 17 Dustin Mohr facing Wandy Rodriguez at Coors (or whatever the heck that HOU kid's last name is, I am too lazy to look him up).

In any event, for the same 0 for 4 phenomenon to occur for 6 or 7 straight games with different players with favorite matchups (i.e. facing mediocre to poor pitchers, hitting well lately) is definitely unlucky.

All I can say is that I hope the law of averages hold up for me next year cuz I am due for some good fortunes like I had in 2003.

Still law of averages. A recently 6 for 17 Dustin Mohr is due for a bad game while a recently 3 for 22 Dustin Mohr is also due.

[KJ]

Hmm...I didn't know there'd be limitations on this cursing deal. Streaky teams and players are usually not good ones anyway.

Anyhoo...I doubt that even the worst curse can stop the White Sox now...

Why do you want to curse the White Sox anyways?

[Lady Zhuge]

Why do you want to curse the White Sox anyways?

I wanted to challenge fox's claim by choosing the best team and (arguably) pitcher in baseball right now since he didn't have any limitations on who or which team could be picked at the time. I mean, what fun is there to curse the Colorado Rockies, right?

[Lady Zhuge]

...no, not years in prison, but games suspended + a monetary fine by MLB. The Players' Union is appealing it, though.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...v=st&type=lgns

What do you guys think about the penalty? Too light, too heavy, or just right for what he did?

[Moinllieon]

...no, not years in prison, but games suspended + a monetary fine by MLB. The Players' Union is appealing it, though.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...v=st&type=lgns

What do you guys think about the penalty? Too light, too heavy, or just right for what he did?

Suspending a starter is always tricky because he only plays once every 5 games, so you have to suspend 5 times the number of games you want to punish him for to get the right amount, but that really really skews the monetary aspects of a suspension. But uh... yeah... I think 20 games is good.

[Han Solo]

There's no way in hell that the yanks will make the playoff this year. though luck really. damn.

[KJ]

I wanted to challenge fox's claim by choosing the best team and (arguably) pitcher in baseball right now since he didn't have any limitations on who or which team could be picked at the time. I mean, what fun is there to curse the Colorado Rockies, right?

That's true, although, knowing you're a Cubs fan, I figured you would rather have him "test" it out on the St. Louis Cardinals instead.

[Lady Zhuge]

That's true, although, knowing you're a Cubs fan, I figured you would rather have him "test" it out on the St. Louis Cardinals instead.

Haha, the Cards were a close second on the "curse" list and would have been first had their record topped the White Sox's.

[flyingfox2002]

Still law of averages. A recently 6 for 17 Dustin Mohr is due for a bad game while a recently 3 for 22 Dustin Mohr is also due.

I would strongly disagree. Like I said, the law of averages holds true over the long term for the most part, but over one game, the law of average has very little bearing on the performance of a player. If you take a look at a given player's monthly splits, even if he bats close to his career BA for the season, his BA will tend to fluctuate up and down month by month, so sometimes even one month is too small a unit for the law of averages to apply. Of course, there are some freakishly consistent hitters who never bat more than 20 points higher or below their season average, but they are the exception.

There's a reason why Roger the Dodger has the best ERA this year (too sum it up with one word, he's on top of his game) , there's also a reason why Coors is consistently the ballpark with the highest runs scored every year (high elevation, thin air, less effective breaking balls, less air resistance so batted balls traveling longer distances, etc.). It is possible than a 6 for 17 Mohr is hitting well lately simply because of luck (bloops dropping in, 20 hoppers find the IF hole), but chances are he is swinging the bat well because he has been mechanically sound and he's been making good adjustments to the adjustments that pitchers make towards him, therefore facing an inferior pitcher, the hot Mohr has the better chance of hitting balls hard than a cold Mohr has of hitting balls hard against a great pitcher on an incredible run.

There is no way that Mohr vs. Clemens in HOU is a better one-game matchup than Mohr vs. W Rodriguez at COL. To put it in another way, there is no way that anyone with baseball knowledge would choose Mohr vs. Clemens @ HOU over Mohr vs. Rodriguez @ Coors. Of course, it is not a guarantee, but the odds are that the latter matchup will yield more favorable results for Mohr.

[flyingfox2002]

Yanks back in first. I am doubtful whether it can last though, because their starting pitching is still awful. The offense can't average 7 runs a game forever. However, they also will probably add a starting pitcher so I wouldn't bet against them making the playoffs.

It would be very sweet if they failed to make the Post Season with a $200 million payroll.