Martial Artists v. Soldiers/Armies: An Analysis

[flamer]

That's still about 100 times less than what I think they should be able to take out.

Whao. So guys like He Taichong (on the upper scale) could defeat 2000-3000? Nah...

[CC]

Ah Qing ripped through (and disarmed) 2000 soldiers in a matter of moments in one of the few instances where Jin Yong shows a character fighting through an army.

But the stronger the opponents, the stronger DG9J gets. So even if 10,000 or 100,000 soldiers shot at LHC, he'd be able to deflect everything back and kill 100,000 enemies with 1 stance!

[bliss]

But the stronger the opponents, the stronger DG9J gets. So even if 10,000 or 100,000 soldiers shot at LHC, he'd be able to deflect everything back and kill 100,000 enemies with 1 stance!

We never did crown a master of the universe in the other thread. Who did we end on, Zhang Cuisan?!?

[K2Grey]

LHC would overcome the army's numerical advantage by not having a numerical advantage.

[Huumanshadow]

LHC would overcome the army's numerical advantage by not having a numerical advantage.

HAHAHA, classic!

[Ken Cheng]

We never did crown a master of the universe in the other thread.

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Master of the Universe

[Ren Wo Xing]

Ahoy, and greetings from China!

Without a working internet connection at my rented apartment in Chengdu, I've been very lax in posting here, in part because I try not to spend too much time in an internet cafe while I'm supposed to be outside having fun. However, I have been glancing through the threads, and one of the threads which caught my eye was the 'philosophies' thread and the discussion on armies v. high level martial artists. It was very interesting, and I thought that discussion deserved its own thread, and thus made one. While on the surface it may seem strange that the likes of ZBT etc. al. have problems with an army, there are a number of reasons why I think it makes sense, even aside from various specific tactics mentioned in that thread (arrows, etc.). Let me list them below:

1) Doctrine: Power - Dead is dead is dead!. Simply put, a large part of martial arts comparisons, especially for high level fighters, is in the power of each blow they can deliver, especially vis a vis their opponents. But when it comes to soldiers, that no longer makes a difference, in that Qiu Chuji's palm is as effective as Huang Yaoshi's palm. Let's say HYS delivers 1000 lbs of force with each blow, and Qiu Chuji delivers 400. That's a huge difference, but if the human body/head/heart/whatever can only withstand 300 lbs of force before resulting in death, then effectively both will result in a kill with each hit, making the effective killing power of a Qiu Chuji, in terms of internal energy, as great as that of a Huang Yaoshi! Once you reach a certain threshhold, the power/internal energy of a martial artist no longer makes a difference when it comes to fighting an army. Stamina will be important, but power itself is not. This is one reason why a HYS level fighter can take on 7 QCJ's in formation, but not be able to take on the equivalent number of soldiers which 7 QCJ's could.

2) Doctrine: Mobility - The question of density! The other major half of martial artists lies in how much faster they can move as compared to their opponents, and in this, once again, vs normal fighters, high level fighters have an advantage with superior qinggong, attacking speed, etc. etc. etc. But once again, versus an army, this makes less of a difference. If charging an enemy line, even excluding arrows and what not, it needs to be noted that an army line is compact; you can circle around an individual, or even a number of individuals, but it's very hard to circle around an army! Meaning that each attack will be made head on, and considering how most soldiers are armed with high 'reach' weapons, head on attacks are very dangerous. Thus the speed/mobility advantage is effectively neutralized when charging an army head on, and if one is actually surrounded, then one's mobility is reduced even further, and the longer they stand and fight, the higher the chance that they will become surrounded.

Fighters like Xu Zhu and Duan Yu are the exception here; the latter is so mobile, with such brilliant footwork, that he is able to find a path even through dense, compact enemy lines. The former has so much power, he can simply ram a way through enemy lines! But few to none can compare in power or in footwork to these two.

3) Doctrine: Chance - The numbers game! In any fight, there is always a chance of defeat for this reason or that reason (see Guo Jing vs Chen Xuanfeng); in one vs one fights, the chance remains static, but in X v 1 fights in which X is constantly replenishable, the chance is compounded!

For example, let's say that a HYS level fighter, when faced with a Qiu Chuji level fighter, has a 95% chance of victory. Only in extremely rare cases (5% of the time) would he lose, and once he wins, that's that. Game over, done is done.

But let's put that HYS level fighter against 10 soldiers, which is probably the effective number of soldiers which could attack him (excluding arrows and surrounding him) at once. Let's say he has a 98% chance of victory; it's almost impossible for him to lose to them. So he kills the ten soldiers...and after that, then what? Ten more come, and once again he has to face that tiny but still-existent 2% chance of defeat!

Using my (totally arbitrary) numbers, if a HYS level fighter has to fight vs 100 soldiers, 10 at a time, with a 98% chance of victory against each individual group, then the chance of him defeating 100 soldiers is actually 0.98^10, which is an 81% chance of victory; still high, but much lower than 98%! If there were 200 soldiers? 0.98^20; only 66%! And if there were 300 soldiers, then the chance of defeating them all would be 54%; barely above even odds! And this is totally excluding exhaustion, being surrounded, as well as the chances of minor injuries/scratches/etc. which would lower his fighting ability even slightly.

Again, I want to stress that numbers of 95% and 98% and what not are totally arbitrary (although not out of the realm of possibility). But using this logic, I think it's easy to see why it's not as easy as it seems for high level fighters to do well against armies as it would seem that they should.

[CC]

I have a long answer to that (see my 10,000 turtle stomping analogy in the other thread) but for now;

Density can be a disadvantage as well as an advantage. Against DCQ's poison or Xie Xun's roaring, packed formations would be instant toast.

[flamer]

The only problem is that HYS can have 100% probability of killing 10 soldiers. Or 99.99999999999% due to him triping himself. Even after applying many times 10 soldiers, the chances still remain negligible.

Only thing would be internal energy and stamina etc.

[Ken Cheng]

Ahoy, and greetings from China!

Without a working internet connection at my rented apartment in Chengdu...

It's safe to come back to America if you want to, Ren. Obama won the election.

[Snafu3721]

3) Doctrine: Chance - The numbers game! In any fight, there is always a chance of defeat for this reason or that reason (see Guo Jing vs Chen Xuanfeng); in one vs one fights, the chance remains static, but in X v 1 fights in which X is constantly replenishable, the chance is compounded!...........

Using my (totally arbitrary) numbers, if a HYS level fighter has to fight vs 100 soldiers, 10 at a time, with a 98% chance of victory against each individual group, then the chance of him defeating 100 soldiers is actually 0.98^10, which is an 81% chance of victory; still high, but much lower than 98%! If there were 200 soldiers? 0.98^20; only 66%! And if there were 300 soldiers, then the chance of defeating them all would be 54%; barely above even odds! And this is totally excluding exhaustion, being surrounded, as well as the chances of minor injuries/scratches/etc. which would lower his fighting ability even slightly........

Again, I want to stress that numbers of 95% and 98% and what not are totally arbitrary (although not out of the realm of possibility). But using this logic, I think it's easy to see why it's not as easy as it seems for high level fighters to do well against armies as it would seem that they should.

One thing to note on the arbitrary math that was used.

Even assuming that HYS has 2% failure rate engaging 10 soldiers. It is 2% failure PER squad, PER encounter. It's like roulette, the odds do not stack even if a given number is hit in succession. The failure rate does not compound as a ratio of total squads.

So if HYS fought 100 soldiers, his odds of success still remains 98% overall, because each time he kills a squad of 10 soldiers, the odds reset.

[Huumanshadow]

It's safe to come back to America if you want to, Ren. Obama won the election.

To be completely safe, wait until he take the oath because you never know...one guy was president for 2 hrs back in the 1800s. Palin might still declare marital law because she saw Russian boats when she got home.

I guess it just depend if you think that no matter how good your skill is, there still a limit or not. Even XX Lion Roars take energy and he cant keep on doing it forever. Heck, even GJ and HR died defending Xiang Castle against the mongols...

[CC]

Heck, even GJ and HR died defending Xiang Castle against the mongols...

Thats only because they did not have us Spcnet members to advise them on what cheap tactics to use.

[Ren Wo Xing]

I have a long answer to that (see my 10,000 turtle stomping analogy in the other thread) but for now;

Density can be a disadvantage as well as an advantage. Against DCQ's poison or Xie Xun's roaring, packed formations would be instant toast.

Xie Xun's roar, I personally feel has its advantages and disadvantages. It does appear to be an AOE attack, but it is unknown if it can be used while moving (many 'breath of qi' type attacks cannot be), which would make him a very vulnerable target while he is roaring, as I am pretty sure bowshot has a larger range. Moreover, if it attacks via generation of sound waves as it appears to, it is very likely that the more people who are in range, the less effective it is, simply by virtue of the fact that each individual person who is present 'absorbs' some of the vibration just by virtue of existing and being present; an army would absorb much more than few dozen low level martial artists, most likely to the degree where no one would even be affected.

Ding Chunqiu's skill is certainly effective, but remember that it requires a constant supply of personnel missiles, and that the poison is dangerous to the user as well, requiring him to stay out of range. So unless he rushes in to attack the army and use its own soldiers as missiles (risky), he has to sacrifice his own people. Keep in mind that all the while, arrows will be rained down on him as well, and the range at which bodies can be thrown is certainly of a much shorter limit than bowshot; moreover, I can see shield-formations used to 'bounce' the human missiles away.

I agree that in general, ranged attacks are the way to go (making LDA users of whatever nature more effective than close-combat), but they still aren't necessarily that effective.

One thing to note on the arbitrary math that was used.

Even assuming that HYS has 2% failure rate engaging 10 soldiers. It is 2% failure PER squad, PER encounter. It's like roulette, the odds do not stack even if a given number is hit in succession. The failure rate does not compound as a ratio of total quads.

So if HYS fought 100 soldiers, his odds of success still remains 98% overall, because each time he kills a squad of 10 soldiers, the odds reset.

Actually, the odds of success do not remain 98% overall, because it is not guaranteed that he will kill a squad of 10 soldiers each time. The odds do not stack once it has actually happened; however, from the beginning, the odds do stack; it's just that the odds progressively improve.

[Snafu3721]

Actually, the odds of success do not remain 98% overall, because it is not guaranteed that he will kill a squad of 10 soldiers each time. The odds do not stack once it has actually happened; however, from the beginning, the odds do stack; it's just that the odds progressively improve.

First, we need to establish what is the most probable squad size to face HYS in one fight. Then we need to establish the success rate of HYS against this squad. We can't say if HYS can beat 10 soldiers at 2% failure, then his first encounter with 100 soldiers will be 2%^10.

Because even if an army has a horde of 100,000 men. They are not all attacking HYS at once (I know one can argue that some are firing arrows at the same time some are attacking on foot). But lets simplify it for now to an army of foot soldiers. The maximum number of soldiers that can engage HYS in one go is probably somewhere between the 10-20 range. Thus, once HYS defeats the first squad, his odds reset.

I don't see how the odds can progressively improve.

[flamer]

The odds do actually stack. Probability. Toss a coin, whats the chance of you getting one head in 10 tosses? Clearly not 1/2.

ie, whats the probability of losing once in 10 fights with hordes of soldiers of 15 each etc.

[Snafu3721]

The odds do actually stack. Probability. Toss a coin, whats the chance of you getting one head in 10 tosses? Clearly not 1/2.

ie, whats the probability of losing once in 10 fights with hordes of soldiers of 15 each etc.

I agree that the above example does increase the chances of a given outcome occurring per statistical expectancy, but it doesn't increase the odds.

So using the army example:

If HYS has 98% of success against 10 soldiers, then he has a 98% success of winning.

If he encounters a second group of 10 soldiers, he still has a 98% success of winning, except he now has increased the likelihood of the 2% failure occurring. In the long run, it is definitely beneficial to the army to keep sending in soldiers because that just allows for greater possibility of HYS hitting his statistically pre-designated 2% failure rate.

However, this doesn't change the fact that HYS could've hit the 2% failure potential on his very first wave of 10 soldiers.

It's like playing the lottery. Even if you buy 1 ticket every day, the odds are the same-- you can win on your very first ticket... or you can never win at all. But it's the same odds.

I attribute "beating a Great via foot soldier squad" as the equivalent of winning the lottery. It can happen, but it's just as likely on your first ticket as your 10,000th ticket-- very SLIM

[flamer]

I understand what you're saying but it doesn't work like that when the event is repeated.

[wuyuejin]

According to some basic theories of probability what Snafu wrote is almost totally true: The probability of HYS losing will remain at 2% for a very long time until his power drops to a level significantly low enough to increase his ability of losing. The factor that makes HYS slightly different from a coin is that after he has fought for a long period of time his energy diminishes.

[flamer]

Sigh maybe its time for some binomial probability.

Two things can happen.

Win- 0.98
Lose- 0.02

Probability to LOSE once in say, 10 times.

10C1 X (0.98)^9 X (0.98)^1

= 0.166749552.....

Which is MUCH higher than 0.02 probability of losing.