NBA Discussion

[spooks]

Kobe is efficient cause he has a little fellow called Shaq helping him on offense.

I'm not surprised VC/T-Mac/PP/AI are lower then Kobe. They don't have Shaq to draw double teams away from them.

[Long]

Some more results. Just thought I'd do Magic, Bird, Pippen, James Worthy and KG. Interesting results again:

Career “Offensive Efficiency Rating” in Regular Season:

1. Magic Johnson = 57.44
2. James Worthy = 54.26
3. Lary Bird = 53.33
4. Kevin Garnett = 51.84
5. Scottie Pippen = 48.76

Career “Offensive Efficiency Rating” in Play-Offs:

1. James Worthy = 59.17 (No wonder people call him "Big Game James".
2. Magic Johnson = 56.16
3. Larry Bird = 52.37
4. Kevin Garnett = 49.43
5. Scottie Pippen = 47.02

Scottie Pippen is only slightly more efficent at the offensive end than Tracy McGrady and Steve Francis.

[Long]

Offensive Efficiency Rating or OER is just another way of determining how "efficient" a player is at scoring their points. It is based on the following formula:

OER = Actual Total Points Scored/Total Potential Points

Total Potential Points = (Total 3pt FG Attmp x 3) + (Total 2pt FG Attmp x 2) + (Total FT Attmp x 1)

ie using Shaq as an example. He has an OER of 59.64 in the NBA Finals. You could therefore be 95% confident that if you gave him 25 touches of the ball/attempts on offence he would score between 31 and 35 points per game.

When you look at the box scores of some of the players like Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Vince Carter in the 2003/04 season you know this is a pretty accurate measure. Most of the times these guys took more shots than they scored points. It is a better measure than FG% or PPG. Because it is a measure that goes point for point.

There are of course assumptions and minor flaws in using this formula. But its one of the better measures of a players “worth” or “effectiveness” at the offensive end that I have come across, and allows comparisons of players. That’s why I wouldn’t recommend someone like Nick Van-Exel who is only around 43.0 effective throughout his career.

The LA Lakers were so dominant in the 80s because the majority of their players from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, James Worthy, and Byron Scott all have efficient ratings above 50.0+. No wonder that they once made 8 consecutive NBA Finals in the 80s.

These days players need a lot of shots to score their points and are thus not as efficient on the offensive end. McGrady and Co really fall well below the production of Jordan and Drexler.

[- L1n -]

i would'nt be suprised in about 3 yrs yao effciency would dramatically rise. If he takes more shots houston is gonna score more.

[spooks]

1) Dwight Howard...Kwame Brown with a Bible. I'm not too high on this guy.

2) Okafor- I'm a huge Okafor fan and the Bobcats have a gem to build around in Chuckwuemeka.

3) Ben Gordon- Bulls already have Hinrich so it looks like Ben is gonna end up being a combo guard. Damn I was hoping he would drop to the Raptors slot.

4) Shaun Livingston-Another I was hoping would drop into the Raptors slot. 6'7 player who is a true PG.

5) Devin Harris- Future PG or trade bait for Lakers? Nash included in Shaq package perhaps.

6) Josh Childress-

7) Luol Deng- Bulls end up getting Deng anyways, even though I predicted him to go 3rd.

8) Araujo- Wtf is going on here? What a waste of a pick...passing up on Iguodala.

9) Iguodala- Should be in a Raptors uniform... great pick for the Sixers. Athletic freak.

13) Telfair- seems a bit high, lot of hype surrounding this guy. Can't shoot, quickness isn't out of this world either.

Jameer drops to 20th but they already have Boykins and Miller. Pavel goes to the Jazz. Just announced Jameer is going to the Magic for a future 1st rounder.

[Long]

The way the draft is going, LA may land the 7'3 Pavoline at No 27. Go.... Go.... Go.....

[Long]

Well, since I started I though I may as well do a comparison of all of the best SG/SF in the NBA to date. Some interesting results. Remember that being under 50.0 = “not effective” (ie it would take 20 shots to score 20pts). More interesting results.

Career "Offensive Efficency Ratings":

1. Adrian Dantley = 60.00 (The best so far)
2. Clyde Drexler = 58.55
3. Kobe Bryant = 57.63 (50.13 in 03/04 as the main man)
4. Bernard King = 54.91
5. Chris Mullin = 54.63
6. James Worthy = 54.26
7. Michael Jordan = 54.16 (slipped late in his career, was 57.0+ earlier in his career)
8. Alex English = 54.15
9. Larry Bird = 53.33
10. Grant Hill = 52.50
11. Reggie Miller = 52.16 (50.08 in play-offs)
12. Dominique Wilkins = 50.46
13. Mitch Richmond = 50.17
----------------------------------------------------(Players below this line are not effective)
14. Penny Hardaway = 49.01
15. Glen Rice = 48.97
16. Glenn Robinson = 48.92
17. Rip Hamilton = 48.85
18. Scottie Pippen = 48.76
19. Ray Alllen = 48.74
20. Tracy McGrady = 48.33
21. Vince Carter = 48.23
22. Allan Houston = 48.15
23. Paul Pierce = 48.06
24. Eddie Jones = 47.84
25. Steve Francis = 47.71
26. Michael Finley = 47.71
27. Carmelo Anthony = 47.02
28. Jerry Stackhouse = 46.95
29. Jim Jackson = 46.41
30. Latrell Sprewell = 46.37
31. Allen Iverson = 46.0
32. Jamaal Mashburn = 45.30
33. LeBron James = 45.18 (Not very effective, compared with MJs 58.0+ for losing Chicago team)

Results: A real surprise isn't it?? With a guy like Adrian Dantley who is a 'mid-range' jump shooter more effective than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Shaquille O'Neal, you gotta wonder what's up with the SG/SF in the NBA these days. In indication that many of them "waste" their shots. Dantley can be please with a career average of over 24.0ppg at 60.0 OER. Clearly one of the most "effectice" offensive forces in the NBA.

Look where Lebron James ended up being. Last amongst all of the SG/SF I rated. It's only his first season. But a sign of a "good" player is that he is "effective" offensively, even on a losing team. I mean "come on" even Mitch Richomd is above 50.0+, and yet during his career, I thought he took way "too many" shots.

Will do a run down of PGs and PFs later. I reckon Charles Barkley and Karl Malone may yet breach the 60.0 mark.

[Long]

How do the PFs and Cs rate amongst themselves. Will anyone beat the "effective rating" of 60.0 of Adrian Dantley - the 6'5 SF who averaged over 24.0 ppg in his career??

Career “Offensive Efficiency Rating” in Regular Season:

1. Kevin McHale = 59.0
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar = 58.22
3. Shaquille O’Neal = 56.82
4. Charles Barkley = 56.74
5. David Robinson = 56.58
6. Yao Ming = 56.57
7. Alonzo Mourning = 56.47
8. Robert Parish = 56.19
9. Karl Malone = 56.02
10. Dikembe Mutombo = 55.59
11. Moses Malone = 55.23
12. Hakeem Olajuwon = 54.36
13. Jamaal Maglorie = 54.16
14. Tim Duncan = 54.12
15. Patrick Ewing = 54.07
16. Shawn Kemp = 53.89
17. Danny Manning = 53.80
18. Elton Brand = 53.55
19. Wilt Chamberlain = 53.38
20. Bill Laimbeer = 53.18
21. Shareef Abdul-Rahim = 52.52 (prob SF though)
22. Zach Randolph = 52.29
23. Antonio McDyess = 51.95
24. Kevin Garnett
25. Kevin Willis = 51.45
26. Larry Johnson =51.45
27. Dirk Nowitski = 50.95
28. Vin Baker = 50.83
29. Rasheed Wallace = 50.81
30. Juwan Howard = 50.74
31. Chris Webber = 50.13
32. Peja Stojakovic = 50.10 (prob SF though)
--------------------------------------------------------------
33. Jermaine O'Neal = 49.83
34. Kwame Browne = 49.82
35. Derrick Coleman = 49.39
36. Antawn Jamieson = 49.22 (prob SF though)
37. Keyon Martin = 48.88
38. Shawn Marion = 48.60 (prob SF though)
39. Keith Van Horn = 48.13
40. Lamar Odom = 46.97 (prob SF though)
41. Clifford Robinson = 46.61
42. Antoine Walker = 42.68

Comments: Anyone want to comment? Kevin McHale at 59.0 is a real surprise. He scores more "effectively" than any other PF/C. But not good enough to beat Adrian Dantley. Just some further observations. Antoine Walker really "sucks" offensively and is the worst rated PF/C. Yao Ming is in very good company at No.6. If only Houston gave him more touches of the ball.

Those wondering:

Joe Dumars = 50.15 (So more "effective" than Rip Hamilton).
Dale Ellis = 49.77

If anyone has a request to make, I'll track down the stats for you.

[ROI]

I think the formula is a bit one dimensional. It gives equal weight to 2pt and 3pt shooting. Guards will generally have a lower score as they shoot more 3 pointers. So while you can use it to compare a center against another center or guard against guard, its unfair to use it to compare a guard against a center.

[spooks]

A stat like this doesn't really prove anything. Especially if Mutombo is being recogized as a top 10 player offensively on this list. I think this is just one of those stats that fun to see but that's pretty much it.

Gheorghe Muresan = 58.34 (6 year career)
Artis Gilmore = 62.44 (12 year) 63.21 if you include his ABA years
Mark West = 57.73 (17 year)
James Donaldson = 60.28 (14 year)

Not exactly HoFers you see up there.

[Long]

Originally posted by spooks
A stat like this doesn't really prove anything. Especially if Mutombo is being recogized as a top 10 player offensively on this list. I think this is just one of those stats that fun to see but that's pretty much it.

Gheorghe Muresan = 58.34 (6 year career)
Artis Gilmore = 62.44 (12 year) 63.21 if you include his ABA years
Mark West = 57.73 (17 year)
James Donaldson = 60.28 (14 year)

Not exactly HoFers you see up there.

The stat does tell you a lot of things. I would be proud if I were the guys above. They probably average only 4-6 shots per game and manage to score at a good clip. You will find that some bench players have an OER of 60.0+. This is good as it means they're reliable off the bench and make a good conversion of 4-8 shot attempts.

The one thing wrong with the formula is that it assumes that a player will score at the same conversion rate despite the number of shot attempts, ie that a player like Kevin McHale will convert at 59.0 regardless of whether he takes 10 or 30 shots. THier is a propensity to miss as you take more shots.

But you can still use it to compare guys like McGrady, Jordan, Kobe, Drexler, and Dantley as throughout their careers they have similiar ppg averages, and shot attempts.

For a guy like Dantley, who averaged 24.0+ ppg in his career with an OER of 60.0 is really something. Because he does take more than 10 shots per game.

This stat can be used to compare "like" type players. ie guys who take similiar number of shots and score similair amount of points. It tells you how good thier conversion rates is versus another.

[spooks]

Gilmore is a career 19 ppg. 12 FGA per game.

A rating similar to this was covered in Pro Basketball Prospectus by John Hollinger.

This was his top 10

1 Artis Gilmore
2 Dave Twardzik
3 Cedric Maxwell
4 James Donaldson
5 Adrian Dantley
6 Reggie Miller
7 Jeff Ruland
8 Charles Barkley
9 Brian Cardinal
10 Magic Johnson

[Long]

Either way OER is still a player's "actual" conversion rate on the points they score. The sign of a good player is that they'll actually convert 50% of the points they could have scored. You'll see through the range of stats that the majority of the NBA's all-time top 50 players convert more than 50% of thier offensive opportunities. This has to count for something.

An OER of below 50.0 can mean a number of things, from players chosing to take too many difficult shots like 3pts or force too many shots to being a plain bad 15ft Jump Shooter. Big guys playing inside have no excuse for not getting an OER of 50.0. In Shaq's case his lower OER is a direct result of his poor FT%.

[Long]

Lakers Draft Selections:

No 27 - SASHA VUJACIC: A 19 year old sharp shooting 6'7 SF/SG. Averaged 14.1 points in the Italian League. I guess at 19 years of age is a very good prospect and pick at No27. Hope he can be a Drazen Petrovic/Peja type of player. Let's hope he can make some solid contribution off the bench and put Devan George out of his misery. Will probably make the playing roster.

No 56 - MARCUS DOUTHIT: A 24 year old, 6'11 F/C who played for Providence. A defensive player who blocked 3.2 shots per game in his senior year. He lacks rebounding at only 5.9 rebounds per game. Doesn't have an offensive game (make that "no offensive game). Someone feed him some cheese buggers to beef him up. He needs to be like Dennis Rodman/Theo Ratliff/Ben Wallace type players. But unlikely. Probably won't make the playing roster.

PS - Now that the Draft is over its time to get back on the trading block/FA market.

[spooks]

NBA Draft 2004

My opinion of what went down.

Steal of the draft: Jameer Nelson at #20

Worst Pick: Rafael Araujo by the Raptors

Bust: Telfair. T.J Ford was a 7/7 player last year and Ford > Telfair

Best overall Team draft: Mavericks. With Nash possible being packaged to LA for Shaq, Harris is a great pick. Pavel is a project but the guy is huge and has a nice touch beyond the arc. I think he was 21/25 beyond the arc during one of his work outs.
Nellie must be drooling over a 7'5 monster with a nice outside touch.

[Long]

Well Portland was loving Telfair so much that there was no doubt they would take him at No 13.

Apprently Nike think's he's going to be something special. They signed him for a $15 million dollar shoe deal. Isn't that like the first commercial deal for all of these people in the draft thus far??

We shall see whether he is a major bust or a "steal". But over the years small PGs like Brevin Knight, and Martin Cleaves haven't done as well as they were epxected to, prior to the draft in thier respective year.

But for mind have to agree with you spooks = Telfair = BUST.

[Eliar Swiftfire]

Well, Philly got Iggy. Hope he's as good as they think he is. They said he plays like Pippen, hm.

[Moinllieon]

Originally posted by spooks
[B]Best overall Team draft: Mavericks. With Nash possible being packaged to LA for Shaq, Harris is a great pick. Pavel is a project but the guy is huge and has a nice touch beyond the arc. I think he was 21/25 beyond the arc during one of his work outs.
Nellie must be drooling over a 7'5 monster with a nice outside touch.

Yeah, there is definitely a shortage of big men who can shoot at Dallas.

Nevertheless, I agree with your analysis very much.

[The Janitor]

No Dirk, no deal.

[spooks]

Originally posted by Eliar Swiftfire
Well, Philly got Iggy. Hope he's as good as they think he is. They said he plays like Pippen, hm.

That pick really ticked me off since the team I'm obligated to cheer for grabbed the next coming of Bryant 'Big Country' Reeves.

VC and Iguodala playing together would have been sick.