NBA Discussion

[Long]

Originally posted by spooks
What are you talking about its not fair comparing Bron to Mcgrady and Kobe. The per 48 minute stat is applicable once a player breaks 15+ mins per game. And those per 48 min numbers clearly show Bron was better than either player in their rookie year.

Spooks, the way you've calculated things are not really a fair indication of the players abilities.

1. Okay, I'll have to admit that the best assumption is that rebounds and assists depends on the "minutes" one players. Therefore you can use the minutes played per game and stretch it out to the maximum of 48 mins for a "fair" comparison.

2. But the PPG does not depend on how many minutes you play. We all know that. PPG depends on how many offensive opportunities you get. A guy like Ben Wallace/Dennis Rodman could play for a whole 48 minutes without a shot attempt.

Therefore the figures you provided are not a true reflection of the capabilities of each player. IF Lebron is the "test subject" then you have to do the following for a "fair" comparison:

Lebron: Played 39.5 minutes pergame, averaged 21.27 "offensive opportunities" in that time with an OER of 45.18. Extract that to 48 minutes he averaged a total of 25.85 offensive opportunities.

Lebron in 48 mins = 25/7/7 (correctly as you stated)

Kobe Bryant: In his rookie year played 15.5 minutes pergame, averaged only a mere 8.07 offensive opportunities with an OER of 47.03. Extract that to 48 mins with the "same" offensive opportunities as LeBron:

Kobe Bryant = 32/6/4

T-MAc: In his rookie year played 18.4 mins, averaged only a mere 7.40 offensive opportunities with an OER of 47.57. Extract that to 48 mins with the "same" offensive opportunities as LeBron:

T-Mac = 32/11/4

Comments: Interesting isn't it??? If in thier rookie season, both T-Mac and Kobe Bryant were the "main man" as LeBron was with the Cavs, you could be 95% confident that they would both average 32ppg. Infact T-Mac was the better player if you want to the ball in his hands and give him 25.85 offensive opportunities.

If you want to compare "apples" with "apples" this is the way you need to you extract your data. After all, Kobe and T-Mac in thier first year were not the main players, and had to get their points within the team offense. Watching LeBron's games, the ball normally touches his hands on every play. But if Kobe and T-Mac were given the same opportunities, they would have kicked LeBron's butt. Infact I can tell you that Kobe's rookie OER of 47.03 was his lowest.

[duguxiaojing]

I watched both tmac and KB8 in their rook season tmac and both of them were not on the same level that Lebron is at 18. They were not physically ready for the L yet. Lacked(tmac) a jumpshot, did not make players around them better no way they could carry a team the way LB did it wouldnt matter if you gave them 40 min a game.

[Long]

Originally posted by duguxiaojing
I watched both tmac and KB8 in their rook season tmac and both of them were not on the same level that Lebron is at 18. They were not physically ready for the L yet. Lacked(tmac) a jumpshot, did not make players around them better no way they could carry a team the way LB did it wouldnt matter if you gave them 40 min a game.

I watched, Kobe, T-Mac, and LeBron along with a number of other SGs and SFs in the league.

Both Kobe and T-Mac were as much ready for the league as LeBron, only they weren't given the opportunity. Lacking a "J" doesn't matter. Both T-Mac and Kobe were capable of slicing it to the lane. In fact when MJ first came into the league, his jumper was "shaky" as well. But MJ relied on slashing it to the whole.

The only thing I keep hearing is that "LeBron" did great for an "18 year old". Once he is "no longer 18" and putting up 20.9ppg with an OER of 45.18, people will start to wonder, "what the heck??". Over and over again the argument is his age. But like I said, once he is no longer young, you won't be able to use that argument. Just wait for 3 years and see if he can do the same as Kobe and T-Mac.

[Long]

Who's the most effective PG in the NBA and compare that with some of the ones long gone.

Career OER:

Magic Johnson = 57.44
John Stockton = 55.82
Kevin Johnson = 55.78
Sam Cassell = 50.50
Steve Nash = 50.39
------------------------------------------------------
Anthony Miller = 49.97
Avery Johnson = 49.86
Dennis Johnson = 49.45
Rod Strickland = 49.42
Isaiah Thomas = 48.89
Brent Barry = 48.65
Gary Payton = 48.13 (30.88 in 2004 NBA Final)
Mike Bibby = 47.78
Steve Smith = 47.73
Mark Jackson = 47.17
Stephon Marbury = 46.85
Gilbert Arenas = 46.76
Tony Parker = 46.50
Chauncy Bilups = 46.07
Kenny Anderson = 46.06
Jalen Rose = 45.74
Jeff McInnis = 45.72
Bobby Jackson = 45.58
Tim Hardaway = 45.54
Tyrone Lue = 45.16
-------------------------------------------------
Daryl Armstrong = 44.93
Damon Stoudamire = 44.09
Jason Kidd = 43.67
Derek Fisher = 43.09
Nick Van Exel = 43.08
Jamaal Tinsley = 40.82

With 3 pointers taken into account, above 50.0 as VERY EFFECTIVE, and above 45.0 is just EFFECTIVE.

Jason Kidd is way down low because he has a very "poor" J to say the least. He does miss most of the shots he takes. Fisher though makes some big plays, does miss a lot of his shot attempts.

Be best "scoring/offensive" PGs in the league at the moment is Nash and Cassell.

[Crazy8]

lebron didnt do just great for an 18 year old, he did great for just a baller.

[spooks]

You didn't watch Kobe and T-Mac's rookie year much did you? T-Mac and Kobe clearly weren't ready to carry their teams when they entered the league. So arguing about what could be if they were the #1 option is a moot point. Neither of them had a NBA body required to play major minutes. And I guarantee you that if their respective teams gave them 40 mins per game. They would have broke down after 40 games.

Toronto was a crap team when they drafted Mcgrady, if he was mentally and physically ready for the NBA why didn't he get Lebron like playing time? Simple because when Mcgrady was drafted he was expected to be a defensive specialist.

How does your OER account for different roles? Kobe had O'Neal to draw double teams away from him. T-Mac wasn't even the 4th option on the team. Lebron is the #1 option and the focus of opposing team's defense. Naturally his rating would be lower.

[Long]

Originally posted by spooks
How does your OER account for different roles? Kobe had O'Neal to draw double teams away from him. T-Mac wasn't even the 4th option on the team. Lebron is the #1 option and the focus of opposing team's defense. Naturally his rating would be lower.

If you want to compare No #1 option vs No #1 options in thier rookie seasons, there are plenty of guys (make that thousands of guys since the NBA began) who averaged an OER of above 50.0ppg and still managed to score 20.0+ ppg. I'll use MJ as an example he had an OER of 57.0+ in his rookie year. Hell even guys like Mitch Richmond and Ron Harper had better OERs than LeBron in their rookie season. But you're going to tell me that these guys had 4 more years of development than LeBron.

So I'll sit back and wait to see what LeBron does in his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pro season. I'll sum him up until then. For me, and guy playing on a "sh*t" team, getting plenty of "offensive opportunities", he did "okay". But with the number of "offensive" opportunities (21.27ppg, heck even some of the better SGs in the NBA these days didn't get that many opportunities as a rookie) he was given, he should have actually averaged at least averaged between 24.0ppg and 28.0ppg (like MJ).

If LeBron had actually converted at least 50% (OER of 50.0) of all the "offensive opportunities", he would have averaged 26.59ppg in his rookie season. And if he had done exactly that, he's team would have been in the play-offs and I would have been impressed.

To put things into perspective: By not converting on 50% of his offensive opportunities, LeBron was actually costing the team 5.69ppg. That's what "offensive efficency rating" is about. What a player "adds" to and what a player "costs" a team everytime they're given the ball at the offensive end. In the NBA adding 5 to 6 points per game to a teams ppg average is huge and can mean the difference between "winning" and "losing" on any given night.

[Long]

I don't mean to say that LeBron didn't do badly in his rookie year. All I'm saying is that I am not yet impressed with someone who got 21.0+ offensive opportunities, averaged 20.9ppg at an OER or around 45.0. All I'm saying is that he needs to improve on his OER next season and lift it above 50.0+ before I am impressed.

To give you another example of the wonders of OER. Let's examine the 2004 NBA Finals:

Kobe Bryant: Played 46.2 mins, had 27.4 offensive opportunities, at an OER 41.24. Scored 22.6ppg (which doesn't look bad on paper).

But what would have happened had Kobe converted at least 50.0% of his offensive opportunities?

Kobe Bryant would have averaged 34.25ppg. An 11.65ppg difference for the LA. LA would have won.

That's why I blame Kobe (and rightly so) for the LA Lakers losing to the Pistons. He should have given the 27.4 offensive plays to Shaq who had an OER of nearly 60.0 and averaged 26.6 ppg with less opportunities.

[spooks]

Also those saying LeBron did better than T-Mac, and Kobe in the rookie season, should look at the box scores and minutes

But if Kobe and T-Mac were given the same opportunities, they would have kicked LeBron's butt

I thought this was what our discussion was about. So let's stay on topic. Lebron's rookie year wasn't anything special. You've listed several players that had better/comparable rookie years. So we can leave the 22/23 year olds out of this discussion.

But...

HS player vs HS player: You still haven't addressed why you think Lebron at 18 is no better than Kobe or T-Mac at 18. What do you have to support Kobe/T-Mac in the same situation would put up better numbers?

Richmond wasn't the #1 option in his rookie year. It was Chris Mullin.


Mcgrady Trade is Official

Will be announced on Wednesday. Rockets receive Mcgrady, Howard, Reece Gaines and Lue. Magic receive Francis, Mobley and Cato.

[Crazy8]

u cant compare lebron to kobe, kobe have shaq to help, the OER doesnt matter much because kobe have help from shaq thats why his getting so hight of a number. whereas lebron only have himself and can only be depend on himself right now. so who the hell are other players going to guard the most? of cousrse leborn. think about the numbers MJ put, he had pippen, longly, harper and more to help him and his not pulling up numbers expected of him.

[Crazy8]

also lebron still have some growths going on

[Long]

Originally posted by spooks
[B]HS player vs HS player: You still haven't addressed why you think Lebron at 18 is no better than Kobe or T-Mac at 18. What do you have to support Kobe/T-Mac in the same situation would put up better numbers?

I've used 22/23 to show that even as the #1 option, with guys double and triple teaming you, people can still have an average of around 50.0. The fact is that LeBron only managed 45.0+ and did not convert on his many opportunities. The fact is neither T-Mac nor Kobe had a lower OER than 45.0+. Using OER as the basis, Kobe and t-Mac does better than LeBron.

The fact is neither Kobe and T-Mac never had the opportunity to be the #1 go to guy at either the Lakers or the Raptors. If they had been according to OER they would have done better. Kobe's lowest OER is 47.0+ . After that Kobe was always better than 50.0+ even when he averaged 30.0ppg. Same follows with T-Mac. He was a better OER.

But it remains that true comparisions can only be made in LeBron's 4 pro season as T-Mac, Kobe, and LeBron will all be the main man. THere's no point in arguing. We'll probably have to wait till the 07/08 season to prove that I've been right all along. If LeBron doesn't lift his OER he won't be averaging many ppg.

On Kobe Bryant:

Infact I remember Del Harris, in an article said during his rookie season that he thought if he had given Kobe Bryant the same minutes as Eddie Jones that Kobe would do better than Eddie and any other SG in the league for that matter. But he went on to say in the same article that he was "more interested" in developing Kobe's basketball IQ/fundamentals. Teaching the game to him on the bench. Giving Kobe the knowledge that he would have acquired at college, and that Kobe's first season was essentially his "apprenticeship" in the NBA. He also went on to say that there would be no way that he was going to play Kobe more than 24 minutes during his rookie season.

Kobe's highlights as an 18 year old "rookie". Scored a season high of 33 points versus the MJ Bulls (guess he had a point to prove). Scored 31 points in the NBA rookie game. So he definetly had a lot of potential. In fact guys like Magic and co were lobbying Del to give Kobe more minutes. But Del stuck to his guns.

I saw Kobe in his rookie year, though his body was undeveloped, he could have lasted 40 mins as a main player. I remember that as a rookie, MJ was just a skinny stick. He survived a very though east, with guys like Mahorn, Salley, Rodman, and co looking to flash an elbow here and there at him. So I don't see why a skinny Kobe couldn't cope with a less aggressive/physical NBA than the days of MJ. Hell Reggie Miller has been a "skinny" stick most of his NBA career and survived.

[Long]

Originally posted by Crazy8
u cant compare lebron to kobe, kobe have shaq to help, the OER doesnt matter much because kobe have help from shaq thats why his getting so hight of a number. whereas lebron only have himself and can only be depend on himself right now. so who the hell are other players going to guard the most? of cousrse leborn. think about the numbers MJ put, he had pippen, longly, harper and more to help him and his not pulling up numbers expected of him.

Early in his career MJ had NO ONE. Yet he still managed an OER of 57.0+, scored 28.0+ppg. Most importantly he helped the Bulls back into the play-offs. That's what legends are made off.

LeBron has got a lot of growth and improvements to make. Most importantly, he should focus on lifting his OER to 50.0 for the 03/04. He can not let that slide below 45.0, otherwise the Cavs are in trouble. A 50% conversion rate will help the Cavs and himself out more.

In the History of the NBA most "strong" play-off teams are lead by a #1 man with an OER of above 50.0 (at any position). This is no concidence.

[spooks]

Originally posted by Crazy8
u cant compare lebron to kobe, kobe have shaq to help, the OER doesnt matter much because kobe have help from shaq thats why his getting so hight of a number. whereas lebron only have himself and can only be depend on himself right now. so who the hell are other players going to guard the most? of cousrse leborn. think about the numbers MJ put, he had pippen, longly, harper and more to help him and his not pulling up numbers expected of him.

Long: Sums up everything I've been saying all along. You cannot compare OER when players are playing under different conditions. Scoring when you're the #1 option and scoring when you're a 2nd, 3rd or 4th is totally different. So OER values are interesting to see but isn't applicable in this situation.

About the Harris comment: If Kobe was ready to play big minutes in his rookie year he would have. Don't buy into that BS Harris said. Coaches are paid to win games, to win games you put your best players on the court. Developing him on the bench? Get real, what's better than PT for developing a young player.

Also coaches over-exaggerate facts about their players all the time. Silas during an interview mentioned Lebron could touch the top of the backboard. Flip has said the same about KG earlier in his career. As has George Karl about Shawn Kemp.

Every rookie shows flashes of greatness. Even Kwame Brown had flashes, but 2-3 games doesn't show anything.

[Long]

Originally posted by spooks
Long: Sums up everything I've been saying all along. You cannot compare OER when players are playing under different conditions. Scoring when you're the #1 option and scoring when you're a 2nd, 3rd or 4th is totally different. So OER values are interesting to see but isn't applicable in this situation.

I will leave you on this note.

#1 player with OER of < 50.0 = Team less likely to win/make the play-offs/have big impact in the play-offs.

In the history of the NBA you see very few teams that have been lead into the play-offs by a #1 with an OER of 45.0.

Till LeBron can prove to me that he can convert 50.0% of his opportunities, I won't be impressed regardless of his age.

50.0% is not an impossible feat given that guys like Reggie Miller who shoots more 3 pointers than most SGs can still have an average of 50.0+. Until his career was taking a major slide Reggie was actually above 55.0+.

[spooks]

Originally posted by Long
Till LeBron can prove to me that he can convert 50.0% of his opportunities, I won't be impressed regardless of his age.

Do any of these following players impress you?

Scottie Pippen, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, Allen Iverson, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Bob Cousy, John Havlicek.

Regardless of what has been brought up. You've already made up your mind not to be impressed by Lebron. 4 years down the line barring injuries maybe Lebron will change your mind.

[Crazy8]

whats with this OER? u dont see t-mac leading the magic to the playoffs, instead he lead them to the worse nba team ever.

[Meh]

The big trade's finally official.

Rockets get

Tracy McGrady
Juwan Howard
Reece Gaines
Tyrone Lue(who'll opt out his contract tomorrow)

Magic get

Steve Francis
Cuttino Mobley
Kelvin Cato

It's the same trade that had been announced for a week now, so I have no idea what the Hell the Orlando GM's been doing these past few days to delay the trade.

From what I've read, the Magic wants to make Francis a 2-guard. Which is a bad idea, IMO. Francis doesn't have the height and strength to shoot over 2s, and he certainly can't guard them. Alsot there's talk about trading Mobley+Gooden for Jason Richardson.

As for the Rockets, they're seeking to deal for Eric Snow as the new PG. I think Snow fits the bill pretty well for the Rockets, although his big contract and age are concerns.

[Long]

Originally posted by spooks
Do any of these following players impress you? Scottie Pippen, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, Allen Iverson, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Bob Cousy, John Havlicek.

You're absolutelt right. "None" of these players impressed me at all. I certainly wasn't a Scottie Pippen fan, MJ's side kick, who was supposed to go to the Rockets and help Barkely get his title. Then he went to Portland. A very "poor" player without MJ, and was just floating around the 50.0+ mark even with MJ on his side. A definite #2, #3 man and not a number #1 man.

As for Isaiah Thomas, he can blame is below 50.0, OER on his earlier days with Detroit, where he played pretty much like Iverson and Marbury. Too much 1 on 1 stuff. Jacking up more shots than he scored. So it was no surprise that when his points dropped under 20ppg, and managed an OER of 50.0+ that the Pistons actually won back to back Championships. I "respected" him as a player, but I never "liked" him.

I never said I was a fan Allen Iverson, Bob Cousy (definately not), John Havlicek (definately not). Never "respected" or "liked" these guys. I am "indiferent" about Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. "Good" players but not "superstars".

I'm also not a Vince Carter and T-Mac fan by any means. But they have at least been around 48.0 mark throughout thier careers. A couple of season on 50.0. Both of them "stank" in 03/04. Hell I don't even like Kobe Bryant after the 2004 NBA Finals.

The only SGs that have actually impressed me that I have seen is MJ, Clyde Drexler, Reggie Miller, Joe Dumars, and Dale Ellis (yes that's right, Dale Ellis). If not for the later parts of his career, even the 3 point sharp shooting Dale Ellis would have had an OER of above 50.0+. There weren't many "sweeter" shooters than Dale Ellis (well maybe Alex English). This guys always found the middle of the net.

Infact you'll find that I'm more of a fan of Cs and PFs. Make no mistake. I "HATE" 95% of all SGs in the NBA, past and present.

[spooks]

6'0 Nelson and 6'3 Francis would be a tiny backcourt but it could work. AI and Snow comes to mind.

Possible lineup of:

Francis/Nelson
Mobley/Stevenson
Hill/Garrity
Gooden/Howard
Cato/Declerq

I can see this team finishing ahead of the Hawks, Wizards, Bobcats and Heat to make the playoffs.